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🛒 UK Retail Shrinkage & Operational Loss Intelligence Platform

Power BI PostgreSQL Python Machine Learning


📌 Project Overview

A 4-page enterprise-level retail loss prevention intelligence dashboard built in Power BI, analysing 500+ incidents across 5 UK stores between Jan 2022 – Jan 2024.

Designed to address the growing UK retail crime crisis — the BRC Crime Report 2026 reports 5.5 million shoplifting incidents costing the industry £400 million annually. This platform helps retail loss prevention teams move from reactive reporting to proactive, AI-driven decision making.


📊 Dashboard Pages

Page 1 — Network Overview

Store-level shrinkage benchmarking across the retail network with RAG status, rolling shrinkage trends, and anomaly delivery tracking.

Network Overview

Page 2 — Supplier Risk Analysis

Bubble chart linking delivery accuracy to store shrinkage rate, identifying HIGH risk suppliers driving fraud. BudgetToys Express and NorthPack Wholesale flagged as critical risks.

Supplier Risk Analysis

Page 3 — Predictive Risk Index

ML-powered store risk scoring using Random Forest (ROC-AUC: 0.9997) with SHAP explainability, identifying which stores need immediate intervention before loss occurs.

Predictive Risk Index

Page 4 — Incident & ORC Intelligence

ORC pattern detection across incident types, store heatmap, supplier fraud linkage, and full incident log with estimated loss tracking.

Incident & ORC Intelligence


🔍 Key Business Insights

  • London East accounts for 31.5% of total £864K loss from a single store
  • Supplier Fraud at 33% — more than double the industry norm of ~15%
  • 4-day lag pattern between anomaly deliveries and incident spikes — fraud embedded at delivery stage
  • Predictive model identifies RED/AMBER stores before loss occurs, enabling proactive intervention
  • Estimated £180K annually recoverable through targeted supplier intervention

🛠️ Tools & Technologies

Tool Usage
Power BI 4-page interactive dashboard
PostgreSQL Data storage and querying
Python ML model development
Random Forest Store risk scoring
SHAP Model explainability
DAX Custom measures and KPIs

📁 Project Structure

uk-retail-shrinkage-dashboard/ │ ├── images/ │ ├── 01_network_overview.png │ ├── 02_supplier_risk_analysis.png │ ├── 03_predictive_risk_index.png │ └── 04_incident_orc_intelligence.png │ ├── Shrinkage_Dashboard.pbix └── README.md


📈 Industry Context

According to the BRC Crime Report 2026:

  • 5.5 million shoplifting incidents detected in the UK last year
  • Organised criminal gangs systematically targeting stores
  • Retailers have invested £5.5 billion in crime prevention over 5 years
  • Delivery theft losses now exceeding £100 million annually

This dashboard directly addresses these challenges through data-driven intelligence.


👤 Author

Heramb Jadhav


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Enterprise-level UK retail shrinkage & ORC intelligence dashboard built in Power BI with ML risk scoring

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