Maize Yield Prediction — Uasin Gishu County, Kenya

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Project Summary

This project predicts annual maize yield (t/ha) in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya using seasonal weather, soil, and seed management data from 2012–2023.

Key Findings

• Rainfall timing matters more than total volume
• Pre-planting conditions (Sep–Nov) shape the following harvest
• Soil acidity (pH 5.7) explains the structural yield gap of ~6.5 t/ha

Model Performance

• Algorithm: Random Forest + SVR
• Validation: Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (n=12)
• LOO RMSE: 0.364 t/ha (10% of county average)
• LOO R²: 0.304

Data Sources

• Ministry of Agriculture & Livestock Development, Kenya
• NASA POWER Climate Data
• Lomurut (2014), Purdue University
• CIMMYT / Tegemeo Institute