params.json

{
  "meta": {
    "published": "2026-04-11T01:07:40.780Z",
    "closureDays": 40,
    "analystNotes": null,
    "aiCalibrated": true,
    "brentPrice": 94.45,
    "brentFetched": "2026-04-11T01:06:10.397Z",
    "natGasPrice": null,
    "natGasFetched": null,
    "primaryEquation": "Eq.3 (Escalation threshold: c·m·E vs. S - Sr)",
    "trapStatus": "active",
    "strategicSummary": "Day 40 of the Hormuz closure marks a significant hardening of the U.S. position: Trump's 'with or without' declaration and explicit toll rejection have simultaneously raised the credibility of military action (c up to 0.87) and closed the informal bargaining space that could have produced a revenue-sharing compromise. European aviation fuel shortages create a 21-day hard deadline that will accelerate great-power pressure on all parties, lifting both E and Ps marginally. The most structurally important development is China's acknowledged diplomatic capital — the WSJ framing suggests Beijing has positioned itself as the indispensable broker, which is the most plausible face-saving off-ramp for Iran at this stage. The trap remains fully active: with $94.45 Brent and a 40-day closure, the financial incentives for Iran to maintain closure are high, but the tripartite dynamic (U.S. military threat + European civilian harm + Chinese diplomatic pressure) is assembling the conditions for a negotiated reopening within the next 2–3 weeks, contingent on formal Sr movement.",
    "mostSignificantEvent": "Headline 1 (Trump 'with or without') is the most significant because it transforms U.S. posture from coercive diplomacy into a unilateral military ultimatum, locking in a high-c equilibrium that forecloses soft landing scenarios and makes the Chinese mediation channel (Headline 4) the only remaining credible off-ramp — a structural shift in the crisis architecture.",
    "news": [
      {
        "id": "N-001",
        "date": "2026-04-11",
        "headline": "President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will be opened \"with or without\" Iran's approval.",
        "severity": "red",
        "eq": "5",
        "eqLabel": "Eq.5 — Commitment Device / c",
        "metricsImpact": {
          "c_delta": "+0.04 — 'with or without' declaration raises U.S. military credibility floor, pressing Iran's response credibility upward as a countermove",
          "E_delta": "+0.3 — unilateral framing broadens escalation envelope by signaling willingness to act outside multilateral consensus",
          "Ps_delta": "+0.5 — explicit presidential commitment partially offsets coalition-defection risk",
          "note": "Most decisive statement for the trap: locks in a high-c equilibrium where neither side can credibly de-escalate without concession; increases probability of kinetic test within 10–14 days."
        },
        "ticker": "President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will be opened \"with or without\" Iran's approval."
      },
      {
        "id": "N-002",
        "date": "2026-04-11",
        "headline": "Trump says will not allow tolls in Strait of Hormuz",
        "severity": "red",
        "eq": "5",
        "eqLabel": "Eq.5 — Commitment Device / c",
        "metricsImpact": {
          "c_delta": "+0.01 — toll rejection removes Iran's potential revenue-extraction off-ramp, narrowing face-saving exits and hardening the standoff",
          "Sr_delta": "0 — no formal relief action; toll rejection actually reduces informal bargaining space",
          "note": "By closing the 'toll compromise' scenario, Trump eliminates a sub-optimal but conflict-terminating deal; raises duration risk of closure beyond day 40."
        },
        "ticker": "Trump says will not allow tolls in Strait of Hormuz"
      },
      {
        "id": "N-003",
        "date": "2026-04-11",
        "headline": "European airports are facing 'systemic' jet fuel shortages 'within three weeks' if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened, according to Financial Times report.",
        "severity": "red",
        "eq": "5",
        "eqLabel": "Eq.5 — Commitment Device / c",
        "metricsImpact": {
          "E_delta": "+0.2 — European aviation fuel crisis at 3-week horizon broadens economic damage beyond oil markets into civilian infrastructure, elevating political cost of continued closure",
          "Ps_delta": "+0.5 — European emergency creates coalition alignment pressure; NATO partners now have direct economic skin in the game supporting U.S. posture",
          "note": "Systemic jet fuel shortage is a 'civilian harm' escalation threshold that historically accelerates great-power coordination; watch for EU Article 222 invocation or emergency IEA release within 72 hours."
        },
        "ticker": "European airports are facing 'systemic' jet fuel shortages 'within three weeks' if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened, according to Financial Times report."
      },
      {
        "id": "N-004",
        "date": "2026-04-11",
        "headline": "China is responsible for 'nudging' Iran to agree for talks with US and now has 'diplomatic capital' with Trump, according to Wall Street Journal report.",
        "severity": "amber",
        "eq": "12",
        "eqLabel": "Eq.12 — Sr threshold",
        "metricsImpact": {
          "G_delta": "+0.0 (boundary — China gains soft-power capital but no CIPS/mBridge volume change yet)",
          "H_delta": "0 — diplomatic capital with Trump is transactional, not structural yuan infrastructure deepening",
          "mediator_status": "1 confirmed — China's intermediary role reinforces rather than replaces Qatar/Oman channel",
          "note": "Critical geopolitical development: China extracting 'diplomatic capital' from both sides creates a de facto tripartite negotiation architecture; Iran gains a face-saving exit vector via Beijing, potentially the most likely off-ramp scenario at this stage of the crisis."
        },
        "ticker": "China is responsible for 'nudging' Iran to agree for talks with US and now has 'diplomatic capital' with Trump, according to Wall Street Journal report."
      }
    ]
  },
  "parameters": {
    "E": 5.5,
    "c": 0.87,
    "m": 3,
    "H": 7,
    "G": 8,
    "S": 10,
    "Sr": 0.78,
    "k": 1.3,
    "nu": 3,
    "Ps": 13,
    "rhoI": 0.03,
    "n": 1.3,
    "dual_strait": 0,
    "m_base": 3,
    "m_activated": 4.75,
    "mediator_status": 1,
    "brentPrice": 103.45
  },
  "paramEquations": {
    "E": "Eq.5",
    "c": "Eq.5",
    "m": "Eq.5",
    "H": "Eq.5",
    "G": "Eq.5 / Eq.12",
    "S": "Eq.12",
    "Sr": "Eq.12",
    "k": "Eq.7",
    "nu": "Eq.7 / Eq.8",
    "Ps": "Eq.7",
    "rhoI": "Eq.8",
    "n": "Eq.7 / Eq.8",
    "dual_strait": "Eq.5",
    "m_base": "Eq.5",
    "m_activated": "Eq.5",
    "mediator_status": "Eq.12"
  },
  "paramNotes": {
    "dual_strait": "Binary flag: 0 = Hormuz-only scenario; 1 = dual-strait activation (Hormuz + Bab-el-Mandeb via Houthi proxy). When 1, m switches from m_base to m_activated.",
    "m_base": "Geographic multiplier when only Hormuz is threatened (~20% global oil). Default 3.0.",
    "m_activated": "Geographic multiplier when both Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb (Houthi proxy) are simultaneously threatened (~30% global oil + Red Sea disruption). Default 4.75.",
    "mediator_status": "Binary flag: 1 = Qatar/Oman back-channel operative (sanctions-relief pathway open); 0 = mediator pathway closed (IRGC strike on Qatari/Omani assets or diplomatic rupture). When 0, Sr is gated — cannot rise regardless of diplomatic signals."
  },
  "derived": {
    "estar": 15.07,
    "estarRatio": 2.74,
    "dominanceMargin": 17.22,
    "srCoverage": 4,
    "uAccommodate": -7,
    "uEscalate": -22.07
  }
}