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| 1 | +# 📘 MPM₀-III Calculator |
| 2 | +## Mortality Probability Admission Model (ICU) |
| 3 | + |
| 4 | +--- |
| 5 | + |
| 6 | +# 🔷 ABOUT |
| 7 | + |
| 8 | +## Overview |
| 9 | +**MPM₀-III Calculator** is a browser-based clinical tool for estimating **predicted hospital mortality at ICU admission** using the validated **Mortality Probability Model (MPM₀-III)** :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}. |
| 10 | + |
| 11 | +The model applies a **logistic regression equation** using: |
| 12 | +- Age (continuous variable) |
| 13 | +- Physiological variables |
| 14 | +- Acute and chronic diagnoses |
| 15 | +- Admission characteristics |
| 16 | + |
| 17 | +to generate a **probability of in-hospital mortality**. |
| 18 | + |
| 19 | +--- |
| 20 | + |
| 21 | +## Scientific Basis |
| 22 | + |
| 23 | +Developed and validated from large ICU datasets: |
| 24 | + |
| 25 | +- Higgins TL et al., *Critical Care Medicine*, 2007 |
| 26 | +- Prospective validation: Higgins TL et al., 2009 |
| 27 | + |
| 28 | +Model performance: |
| 29 | +- AUROC ≈ 0.82 |
| 30 | +- Good calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow p > 0.05) |
| 31 | +- Standardized Mortality Ratio ~1.0 |
| 32 | + |
| 33 | +--- |
| 34 | + |
| 35 | +## Model Structure |
| 36 | + |
| 37 | +### 1. Logistic Model |
| 38 | +The calculator computes: |
| 39 | + |
| 40 | +\[ |
| 41 | +P = \frac{1}{1 + e^{-logit}} |
| 42 | +\] |
| 43 | + |
| 44 | +Where **logit** is derived from: |
| 45 | +- Constant |
| 46 | +- Age coefficient |
| 47 | +- Binary variables |
| 48 | +- Interaction terms (Age × selected variables) |
| 49 | + |
| 50 | +--- |
| 51 | + |
| 52 | +### 2. Variables Included |
| 53 | + |
| 54 | +#### Physiological |
| 55 | +- Coma / deep stupor |
| 56 | +- Heart rate ≥150 bpm |
| 57 | +- Systolic BP ≤90 mmHg |
| 58 | + |
| 59 | +#### Chronic Conditions |
| 60 | +- Chronic kidney disease |
| 61 | +- Cirrhosis |
| 62 | +- Metastatic malignancy |
| 63 | + |
| 64 | +#### Acute Diagnoses |
| 65 | +- Acute kidney injury (KDIGO-based) |
| 66 | +- Cardiac dysrhythmia |
| 67 | +- Cerebrovascular event |
| 68 | +- GI bleeding (protective) |
| 69 | +- Intracranial mass effect |
| 70 | + |
| 71 | +#### ICU Admission Factors |
| 72 | +- CPR before admission |
| 73 | +- Mechanical ventilation |
| 74 | +- Medical / unscheduled surgery |
| 75 | +- Full code status (protective) |
| 76 | + |
| 77 | +--- |
| 78 | + |
| 79 | +### 3. Special Terms |
| 80 | + |
| 81 | +- **Zero Factor** |
| 82 | + - Automatically applied when no risk variables are present |
| 83 | + - Improves calibration in low-risk patients |
| 84 | + |
| 85 | +- **Interaction Terms** |
| 86 | + - Age modifies effect of selected variables |
| 87 | + - Prevents overestimation in older patients |
| 88 | + |
| 89 | +--- |
| 90 | + |
| 91 | +## Output |
| 92 | + |
| 93 | +The calculator provides: |
| 94 | + |
| 95 | +- **Predicted mortality (%)** |
| 96 | +- **Risk category** |
| 97 | + - Low |
| 98 | + - Moderate |
| 99 | + - High |
| 100 | +- **Logit value** |
| 101 | +- **Breakdown of contributing factors** |
| 102 | + |
| 103 | +--- |
| 104 | + |
| 105 | +## Intended Use |
| 106 | + |
| 107 | +- ICU admission risk stratification |
| 108 | +- Clinical audit and benchmarking |
| 109 | +- Teaching and training |
| 110 | +- Research data standardization |
| 111 | + |
| 112 | +--- |
| 113 | + |
| 114 | +## Limitations |
| 115 | + |
| 116 | +- Not a dynamic score (single time-point model) |
| 117 | +- Does not replace clinical judgment |
| 118 | +- Limited applicability in: |
| 119 | + - Cardiac surgery |
| 120 | + - Burns |
| 121 | + - Acute myocardial infarction cohorts |
| 122 | + - Pediatric patients |
| 123 | + |
| 124 | +--- |
| 125 | + |
| 126 | +## License |
| 127 | + |
| 128 | +GNU General Public License v3.0 (GPL-3.0) |
| 129 | + |
| 130 | +© 2026 |
| 131 | +Prof. Jyotirmay Kirtania |
| 132 | +MPMMCC & HBCH, Tata Memorial Centre, Varanasi |
| 133 | + |
| 134 | +--- |
| 135 | + |
| 136 | +--- |
| 137 | + |
| 138 | +# 🛠️ HELP |
| 139 | + |
| 140 | +## Getting Started |
| 141 | + |
| 142 | +1. Open the `.html` file in a modern browser (Chrome/Edge recommended) |
| 143 | +2. Enter patient **age (mandatory)** |
| 144 | +3. Select applicable clinical variables |
| 145 | +4. View predicted mortality in real time |
| 146 | + |
| 147 | +--- |
| 148 | + |
| 149 | +## 🧮 How to Use |
| 150 | + |
| 151 | +### Step 1: Enter Age |
| 152 | +- Mandatory input |
| 153 | +- Range: ≥18 years |
| 154 | + |
| 155 | +--- |
| 156 | + |
| 157 | +### Step 2: Select Variables |
| 158 | + |
| 159 | +Tick only if criteria are **clearly met within 1 hour of ICU admission** |
| 160 | + |
| 161 | +#### Key Principles |
| 162 | +- If uncertain → leave unchecked |
| 163 | +- Default assumption = normal |
| 164 | + |
| 165 | +--- |
| 166 | + |
| 167 | +### Step 3: Review Output |
| 168 | + |
| 169 | +Displayed results include: |
| 170 | + |
| 171 | +- **Mortality probability (%)** |
| 172 | +- **Risk classification** |
| 173 | +- **Graphical probability bar** |
| 174 | +- **Logit breakdown** |
| 175 | + |
| 176 | +--- |
| 177 | + |
| 178 | +## 📊 Interpretation |
| 179 | + |
| 180 | +| Probability | Risk Category | |
| 181 | +|------------|--------------| |
| 182 | +| <10% | Low risk | |
| 183 | +| 10–25% | Moderate risk| |
| 184 | +| >25% | High risk | |
| 185 | + |
| 186 | +--- |
| 187 | + |
| 188 | +## 🔍 Clinical Meaning |
| 189 | + |
| 190 | +- Higher probability → increased risk of in-hospital mortality |
| 191 | +- Useful for: |
| 192 | + - Prognostication |
| 193 | + - ICU audit comparisons |
| 194 | + - Case-mix adjustment |
| 195 | + |
| 196 | +--- |
| 197 | + |
| 198 | +## 📋 Special Features |
| 199 | + |
| 200 | +### 1. Zero Factor |
| 201 | +- Automatically activated if no risk variables selected |
| 202 | +- Represents baseline low-risk population |
| 203 | + |
| 204 | +--- |
| 205 | + |
| 206 | +### 2. Interaction Effects |
| 207 | +- Age modifies impact of: |
| 208 | + - Coma |
| 209 | + - Hypotension |
| 210 | + - Cirrhosis |
| 211 | + - Metastatic cancer |
| 212 | + - Dysrhythmia |
| 213 | + - Intracranial pathology |
| 214 | + - CPR |
| 215 | + |
| 216 | +--- |
| 217 | + |
| 218 | +### 3. Copy Results |
| 219 | +- Click **“Copy results text”** |
| 220 | +- Generates structured output: |
| 221 | + - Mortality % |
| 222 | + - Age |
| 223 | + - Selected variables |
| 224 | + |
| 225 | +--- |
| 226 | + |
| 227 | +### 4. Worked Example Validation |
| 228 | +- Built-in reference example from original publication |
| 229 | +- Ensures computational accuracy |
| 230 | + |
| 231 | +--- |
| 232 | + |
| 233 | +## ⚠️ Important Notes |
| 234 | + |
| 235 | +- Model applies **only at ICU admission** |
| 236 | +- Do NOT use for: |
| 237 | + - Daily reassessment |
| 238 | + - Treatment decisions in isolation |
| 239 | + |
| 240 | +--- |
| 241 | + |
| 242 | +## 🧠 Best Practice |
| 243 | + |
| 244 | +Use alongside: |
| 245 | +- Clinical judgment |
| 246 | +- Hemodynamic assessment |
| 247 | +- Organ dysfunction scores (SOFA/APACHE) |
| 248 | + |
| 249 | +--- |
| 250 | + |
| 251 | +## ❌ Common Errors |
| 252 | + |
| 253 | +- Over-selecting variables without strict criteria |
| 254 | +- Using outdated clinical data |
| 255 | +- Applying to ineligible populations |
| 256 | +- Interpreting probability as certainty |
| 257 | + |
| 258 | +--- |
| 259 | + |
| 260 | +## 📄 Disclaimer |
| 261 | + |
| 262 | +This tool is intended for: |
| 263 | + |
| 264 | +- Clinical audit |
| 265 | +- Educational use |
| 266 | +- Research purposes |
| 267 | + |
| 268 | +It does **not replace**: |
| 269 | +- Clinical judgment |
| 270 | +- Institutional protocols |
| 271 | +- Specialist consultation |
| 272 | + |
| 273 | +--- |
| 274 | + |
| 275 | +## 📚 References |
| 276 | + |
| 277 | +- Higgins TL et al. Crit Care Med. 2007 |
| 278 | +- Higgins TL et al. Crit Care Med. 2009 |
| 279 | +- KDIGO Clinical Practice Guideline for AKI, 2012 |
| 280 | + |
| 281 | +--- |
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